The death of former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga has not only left Kenya in mourning but also exposed deep fissures within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a party he built and led for two decades. Despite emotional pledges of unity during his burial, the cracks among party members were evident, hinting at a looming political realignment in the post-Raila era.
Kisii Governor Simba Arati subtly steered the conversation away from unity and instead suggested that President William Ruto should seek re-election in 2027 under the ODM banner. His remarks sent political shockwaves through the party, signaling a possible shift in allegiance. Analysts note that if former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i revives his presidential ambitions, Arati could easily be drawn into his camp, given the ethnically polarized nature of Kenyan politics.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, known for his bold and at times defiant political stance, remained noncommittal about the party’s continued cooperation with the ruling coalition. Addressing mourners, Sifuna vowed that ODM would field its own presidential candidate in the 2027 elections, a move he said would honor Raila’s legacy. The outspoken SG has repeatedly criticized President Ruto’s governance model, arguing that it contradicts ODM’s founding ideals. Whether Sifuna can rally the party’s rank and file around his hardline position remains to be seen.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, a longtime ally turned critic-turned-supporter of the broad-based government arrangement, also used the funeral to reflect on Raila’s political struggles. He condemned past electoral injustices and, state machinery used to frustrate Raila’s reform efforts. In a subtle jab at unnamed party officials, Orengo reminded them that the political privileges they now enjoy were the fruits of Raila’s lifelong sacrifices.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch took to Facebook to express his discontent over what he termed the exclusion of Nyanza legislators from the list of funeral speakers. In a veiled attack on Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Oketch claimed governors were too occupied with county affairs to provide the focused leadership ODM now requires.
The burial also turned into a stage for statecraft and political maneuvering. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Interior CS Kithure Kindiki strategically invited ODM Cabinet Secretaries to speak, a move seen as an attempt to underscore their alignment with the government’s broad-based agenda. The four ODM-affiliated CSs in attendance openly rallied behind the unity government, further muddying the party’s post-Raila direction.
Whether ODM will heed the calls for unity voiced by President Ruto and other leaders remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Raila’s death has left behind a political vacuum, one that could either fracture the movement he founded or inspire its rebirth under new leadership.
