Embakasi East Member of Parliament Paul Ongili Owino, popularly known as Babu Owino, has emerged as the most preferred politician to inherit the Luo political mantle after former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, according to the latest Cognitiv opinion poll.
The survey shows that 61.3 per cent of respondents across the Luo nation identify with Babu Owino as their preferred successor. He leads by a commanding margin over Siaya Senator and ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga, who stands at 18.5 per cent, Winnie Odinga at 13.1 per cent, Homa Bay Governor and ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga at 3.2 per cent, Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo at 1.8 per cent, and Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi at 1.4 per cent.
Amid heightened debate over who will take over Raila Odinga’s political shoes, the data provides a clearer picture. Statistical modelling shows that Babu Owino’s lowest potential support is 54.7 per cent, still significantly higher than the highest possible support of his closest competitor, Dr Oburu Oginga, at 25.1 per cent.
The poll also revealed shifting national sentiment, with 57.2 per cent of Kenyans expressing optimism about the country’s direction. However, the figure conceals deep polarization, as 42.8 per cent of those surveyed said the country is headed the wrong way.
The Cognitiv survey focused on seven administrative wards considered central to Kisumu’s urban political landscape: Nyalenda A, Nyalenda B, Kondele, Market Milimani, Kajulu, Railways, and Kolwa Central in Kisumu East.
According to the research firm, residents were asked two key questions: “Who do you think is best suited to be the next Luo kingpin?” and “Do you think the country is moving in the right direction?”, questions that produced overwhelming support for Babu Owino and a mixed national outlook on Kenya’s trajectory.
