In the dynamic world of Kenyan politics, one group has consistently found itself navigating a landscape filled with shifting sands—the self-proclaimed “Team Democracy.”
Each election cycle since 2012 has offered them hope, but it seems that reality has a way of defying their expectations.
Each election cycle since 2012 has offered them hope, but it seems that reality has a way of defying their expectations. Here’s a closer look at how Kenyan politics has been a lesson in unpredictability.
The 2012 Illusion: The Hague and Tribalism.
Back in 2012, Team Democracy saw an opportunity in the looming specter of the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. Many believed that the presence of certain high-profile candidates on trial would dissuade voters and alter the political landscape. Instead, it had the opposite effect, galvanizing two major tribes into a powerful voting block.
The idea that The Hague would be on the ballot proved to be a miscalculation; rather, it became a unifying force for those under scrutiny.
The 2017 Script: Change that Didn’t Stick
Fast forward to 2017, and Team Democracy came back with a new script: change. The promise of fresh leadership and a break from entrenched political structures seemed like a winning strategy. However, as the election results unfolded, it became clear that the status quo had not shifted as expected.
The script for change had been compelling, but the existing political machinery was resilient, and the old guard maintained their grip on power.
The 2022 Mirage: Deep State and The System
By 2022, Team Democracy was banking on the influence of the so-called “deep state” and the political system to sway the election. They believed that the hidden powers within government institutions and the establishment would work in their favor. Yet, once again, reality proved elusive.
The deep state and system they counted on turned out to be a mirage, with voters opting for candidates who defied their predictions. The lesson? Relying on unseen forces to control the outcome is as risky as betting on a mirage in the desert.
The 2027 Outlook: New Dynamics, Same Uncertainty
Looking ahead to 2027, Team Democracy faces a new challenge: Taxation. While they may think that issues like taxation and economic policy will be central to the election, other dynamics are sure to come into play. The evolving political landscape in Kenya is filled with surprises, and it’s unwise to underestimate the adaptability of politicians and the resilience of the electorate
As we move forward, one thing is clear: it’s too early to write off anyone, including William Ruto. The complexities of Kenyan politics mean that each election cycle brings its own unique set of dynamics, alliances, and unexpected turns. Team Democracy has learned this the hard way, and they will need to remain adaptable as they navigate the ever-changing political terrain.
Conclusion
Kenyan politics is a fascinating and unpredictable field, where what seems certain one moment can change in the next. The journey of Team Democracy serves as a reminder that in this landscape, nothing is ever truly set in stone. The best advice? Get used to the way Kenyans vote—it’s as much about tradition as it is about surprise.
